NYC Electric Grid Carbon Emissions Factor Increased 29%

The latest EPA eGRID emissions factors, eGRID 2021 released 1/30/23, show NYC and Westchester’s electric grid’s (subregion NYCW) CO₂ emission rate (lbs/MWh) increased 29% year-over-year.  The US average is up 4% vs. eGRID 2020, with 7 regions down, 2 essentially flat, and 18 up, but NYCW’s 29% increase is by far the largest (next is SRTV at 12% and SPSO at 11%). 

NYCW’s CO₂ emission rate of 816.76 lbs/MWh is the highest rate since eGRID 2004, which is concerning given NYC and the State of New York’s ambitious climate goals.  So what gives? 

Indian Point nuclear, which supplied about 25% of the NYCW load with zero-emission energy, shut down in April 2020 and April 2021. Leading up to the shutdown, legislators and anti-nuclear groups indicated it wouldn’t entirely be replaced by natural gas, but numbers don’t lie.  Nuclear generation as a mix of total generation is down from 40.2% (eGRID 2019) to 29.9% (eGRID 2020) to 8.7% (eGRID 2021). Natural gas generation as a mix of total generation increased from 58.3% (eGRID 2019) to 69.1% (eGRID 2020) to 90.1% (eGRID 2021). From eGRID 2019 to eGRID 2021, there has been a 31.5% reduction in nuclear generation, entirely offset by the 31.8% increase in natural gas generation.  

Perhaps it’s a short-term increase in emissions as work is done to introduce more renewables into NYC and Westchester’s grid (e.g. NYSERDA offshore wind, Clean Path NY, Champlain Hudson Power Express), but it’s not a great look given NYC’s and NY’s ambitious climate goals. As we’re preparing annual ESG reports and carbon inventories for clients with assets in NYC, the YoY scope 2 emissions increase sticks out like a sore thumb.  No company is reducing electricity consumption at a rate that can offset this emissions factor increase, and it’s particularly concerning considering the push to electrify buildings over the coming years.  Fingers crossed that this situation is rectified and improves towards 2030 when the next lower tier of Local Law 97 emissions limits goes into effect, but I wouldn’t expect any major improvements in the next 3-4 years.